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US 2020 Presidential Election PredictionsThis is the only site with all 2020 US Election Predictions
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Where we stand: Biden in the lead but not by much I will comment only on the poll based models. None of the analytical models have been updated. Obviously none of the modelers were counting on a world-wide pandemic and how to factor this into their equations. So far, the gambing sites give Trump a slight edge. I'll cover the gamblers when we get closer to the election. All poll based models I follow predict Joe Biden as the winner. The real difference in these models, is whether Biden will win with a tight margin or a wide margin. These prognosticators are 6:2 on a tight race.
There are two other models which are not independent models, but rather "consensus based" ones, trying to average the results of other models. These two models are from the 270 to Win and Political Wire websites. They are in general agreement with the tight margin models. So, where are the big differences? Let's start with the PAWN group, or the PA, AZ, WI and NC group, which carries 56 EV's. This is our "toss up" consensus group. Just for reminders, Trump won these 4 states in 2016, but with narrow margins. The Electoral Votes website has all four in the likely-lean Democrat camp while Niskanen puts PAW as lean Democratic camp, with only North Carolina as a toss-up. Texas has been losing it's redness also among poll survey followers. If the forecasters stuck with historical trends, Texas would be solid red. But the "wide margin" prognosticators are more attuned to the latest poll numbers, not particularly supportive of the historical voting pattern. Texas was last won by a Democrat (Jimmy Carter) in 1976, as he made a solid sweep of the Gulf Coast states (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama). A very different time. Both Electoral Votes and Niskanen considers Texas as a lean Republican. Finally, we have to mention Florida and Georgia both of which had a definite Republican leaning. Florida is considered either lean Republican or toss up in most models. However, Electoral votes which rigorously adheres to the most recent polling data, considers it to lean Democratic. Georgia is a lean Republican except for the Niskanen model which considers it a toss up. Real Clear Politics lumps 230 EV's from 19 states in the toss-up group. Wow that's a lot of uncertainty. If you take the 270 to win map, and sum the toss up and leans, this comes out to 204 EV's. Not that much difference. The RCP toss-up group includes Ohio and Colorado. The 270 to win considers Ohio to be Likely Republican and Colorado to be Likely Democrat. It certainly appears the two models prediction that Biden will win by a wide model tend to rigorously follow the latest polling data. The others may temper recent state poll data with historical trends. Most likely, both parties are eyeing more than just the PAWN states, and wondering if Florida, Michigan, Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Minnesota are flippable. Maybe Ohio and Colorado are good flippable targets. Under today's Covid-19 environment, much of the election will be fought on social media and ads on cable television at least for now, which guarentees the 2020 election will be dirty politics. Let the mudslinging begin! David Lord Links: Map showing Biden winning by large margin Niskanen Center - Bitecofer Prediction
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